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Russian reconnaissance flights probe Polish air defences over the Baltic Sea

14-16 July 2026 · Baltic Sea off Ustka, Poland
Satellite Imagery © Esri

What happened

Between 14 and 16 July 2026 Polish fighters repeatedly intercepted Russian military aircraft flying in international airspace over the southern Baltic Sea. On 14 July Polish F-16s based at Malbork intercepted a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft about 30 kilometres off Ustka. According to the Polish account the aircraft was flying without a filed flight plan and with its transponder switched off, and it turned back towards Russia after being signalled by the Polish pilots.

Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said the flight was an attempt to gather intelligence on Poland's air-defence systems and the first such approach to the Polish maritime border in a long time. On 15 July Polish and Swedish aircraft were scrambled to a pair of Su-30SM2 fighters from Kaliningrad while Polish air-defence integration exercises were under way. On 16 July, as reported by TVP World and Polsat News, two Su-30s and another Il-20 were intercepted, the second about 30 kilometres north of Jastrzębia Góra, with Swedish aircraft taking over the escort.

Polish authorities stated that Polish airspace was not violated in any of these cases.

Assessment

Nothing recorded here was unlawful. The Russian aircraft stayed in international airspace, which is why the case is filed under Other rather than as an airspace violation. What makes it relevant is timing and pattern. The flights coincided with Polish air-defence integration exercises, and the Polish defence ministry reads them as deliberate collection against the radar and command systems that would matter first in a crisis. Flying without a flight plan or transponder is a recognised way of forcing a NATO reaction and observing how quickly and from where it comes.

This dossier summarises open-source reporting and is updated as the investigation develops. Read the original report via the source link.